Laying Odds on What Bills Will Pass

If you follow Robert Richards on Twitter, you know the latest in the area of legal informatics before anyone else (besides Robert).

Here's something he called out yesterday: the fact that, a site that reports on proposed legislation, is assigning, to specific bills introduced in a given US Congress, a numerical probability for passage.

Screen shot 2012-04-08 at 9.53.23 PMRobert called out the tweet thread pictured here.

I went to the site to see if it had pedicted the odds for passage of HR 3606, the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act that did in fact pass and which President Obama signed last Thursday.

Sure enough, it had. Probability? "This bill has a 43% chance of being enacted."

See this post from yesterday on the site for a listing of the factors taken into consideration in setting the numerical probabilities.

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